Thinking About Asia Economic Strategy for the Second Obama Administration

The stellar group of Asia hands at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has released an updated report articulating policy recommendations for the second Obama administration with respect to economic strategy in Asia.

The report covers several key countries including Japan, Korea, India, China and ASEAN. Some of the recommendations include supporting ASEAN ‘connectivity’ efforts and working towards a full US-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement (FTA), expanding cooperation with Japan and Korea in the G-20 and bringing them into the fold of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), establishing an ambitious 10-year “New Framework for U.S.-India Economic Cooperation”, and modifying the Strategic and Economic Dialogue (S&ED) with China.

There is also a list of lessons learned recommended for policymakers drawing partly on an earlier report released on the subject for Obama’s first term, which deals with issues like negotiation, public relations and bureaucratic politics.

One of the key challenges that the study highlights for the future of Asia economic policy is the resource constraints in Washington:

For the United States to have an effective strategy in Asia, and to be taken seriously by partners there, it must have sufficient talent and resources for the job. At present, U.S. government personnel and funding devoted to Asia policy, especially in the economic arena, are insufficient to the size, challenges, and opportunities of the region. In particular, the State Department and other agencies traditionally focused on political and security issues need more senior officials versed in Asian economics.

You can read the full thing here.

A U.S. Pivot…Back to the Middle East?

A couple of weeks ago, America’s top diplomat for East Asia Kurt Campbell said that the top 2013 question he gets about U.S. Asia policy is whether the so-called pivot or rebalance will sustain during President Barack Obama’s second term.

At least part of that anxiety lies in the belief that the United States could once again become embroiled in the Middle East, something that is very much on the minds of seasoned Asia hands like Mike Green over at CSIS.

Those already worried about this will find little relief hearing what Vali Nasr, formerly a professor at the Fletcher School and a noted Middle East expert, had to say in his opening remarks at a Foreign Correspondents Club lunch in Hong Kong last week.

Two years after the Arab Spring, Nasr said, any hope by Asianists that the Arab Spring would somehow lead the Middle East to come to grips with its own issues and free up Washington to then focus more of its attention to Asia is all but extinguished. The region today, Nasr said:

…Is becoming a source of growing headaches and an impetus for a pivot back to the Middle East by the United States. Going forward, at least in the next year or two, the Middle East will be far more important in the making of U.S. foreign policy and how it deploys its resources going forward than any strategic statement that the administration has made and is making.

That’s a pretty bold statement, but it doesn’t seem that farfetched if you look at the ground realities in the Middle East. In the next one to two years, Iran’s nuclear program, the Syrian civil war, and escalating violence in Afghanistan as the U.S. departs all loom as potential tinderboxes.

And by the way, that doesn’t include anything proactive U.S. President Barack Obama might try to do in his second term in the region, like something on the Arab-Israeli conflict which some have urged him to. Or the other innumerable domestic policy priorities the administration will try to tick off within the first half of the second term before the president risks becoming a lame duck and losing political capital.

Are you worried yet?

Will the U.S. Pivot to Asia Sustain Through 2013?

CSIS Asia hand Mike Green has his doubts about whether President Barack Obama can sustain the U.S. pivot or rebalance to Asia unveiled during his first term:

Given that 2013 could be the year of reckoning on Iran’s nuclear program, not to mention the likely denouement for Syria, John Kerry will require real strategic discipline to keep a focus on Asia. The administration has also had some difficulty managing the inherent tension between engaging China and maintaining a favorable balance of power in the region.  Allies such as Japan and the Philippines worry that in the second term the administration may tilt back towards an emphasis on reassuring, rather than dissuading, Beijing.  That would be unfortunate, since lack of consistency on that front hurt the administration in the first term with both the allies and Beijing.

Engagement of ASEAN is a noted success for this administration, but the terrain could become tougher in the years ahead, given renewed ethnic conflict in Burma, leadership transitions in Indonesia, and domestic political problems in Vietnam, Malaysia and elsewhere. A strong U.S. Trade Representative empowered to move forward on the Trans-Pacific Partnership would certainly help the sustainability of the Pivot, particularly with ASEAN.  Finally, all eyes will be on the defense budget. A carefully managed cut to defense spending that allows reprogramming for naval and air force capabilities in the Pacific is necessary.  Sequestration that throws the defense establishment into chaos would damage the region’s image of American strategic competence.

I have highlighted similar concerns in several recent pieces, including here.