Flicker of Hope in Burma

One underground Democratic Voice of Burma reporter laments to another in the award−winning film “Burma VJ” (2008), which chronicles a series of protests against the brutal military junta in 2007, “No matter what we do, everything just stays the same.” His colleague counsels, “Don’t be too sure.”

Four years later, few would contest that change is in the air in Burma. Just months after the transition to a fresh semi−civilian government under President Thein Sein, a dizzying array of reforms has confounded even the regime’s fiercest critics. Since Mr. Thein Sein met with opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi in August, the government has, among other things, halted the construction of the China−backed Myitsone Dam due to public concerns, ended restrictions on the Internet and free trade unions, loosened press freedom and released hundreds of political prisoners.

The motives for reform are several. Mr. Thein Sein badly needs Western foreign investment to develop Burma’s battered economy. But that can only occur after U.S. and EU sanctions are lifted, which will require substantial political change on the government’s part. All eyes are also on Burma as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) evaluates if it is fit to chair the organization in 2014. With a crucial visit by Indonesia’s Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa looming later this month and a final decision expected in November, the clock is ticking.

Domestic imperatives are powerful, too. After decades of isolation and quasi−socialist policies, followed by Western sanctions, Burma’s military junta has transformed the country from a rice basket to a basket case. The economy is one of the poorest and most corrupt in the world, while the civil service, health and education systems are dismal at best. Seething public discontent is reaching a boiling point, as evidenced by the so−called Saffron Revolution of 2007, the largest anti−government demonstration since 1988, which erupted over fuel price increases. Burma’s rulers now know they can no longer govern with bullets alone.

How far this wisdom will take them, however, remains unclear. Previous attempts at reform have been tried and then either retracted or stifled by hardliners. A similar outcome may result this time, particularly with rumors of a bitter power struggle between Mr. Thein Sein and his more conservative vice−president Tin Aung Myint Oo. Some also fear that the pace of change may ebb after Burma secures its ASEAN 2014 chairmanship or concessions from the West. And even if reforms do continue, the country still has a long list of issues to confront ranging from healing ethnic divisions to instituting totally free and fair elections.

Yet the changes nonetheless deserve recognition by the international community. U.S. State Department officials, including Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Kurt Campbell and U.S. Special Envoy for Burma Derek Mitchell, have met with Burmese officials and expressed cautious optimism about reform. But Thant Myint U, a historian and former U.N. official, says the West needs to support the reforms by not only cheering on the sidelines but lifting restrictions limiting the United Nations and World Bank from offering technical expertise and assistance, and moving toward ending sanctions. Jim Della−Giacoma of the International Crisis Group, a non−governmental organization, concurs, saying that Western countries should support Myanmar’s reformers rather than just lecturing them.

While the timing for implementing these recommendations may be debatable, their spirit and substance should not be. If the international community does not reciprocate by adding fuel to the flickering flame of reform in Burma, it may squander the best opportunity it has in over almost a quarter−century to pull the country out of darkness.

This article was first published in the Tufts Daily.

Continuity and Change in Saudi Arabia

I’ve published a piece in the Tufts Daily on the historic reforms recently decreed by Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah, and what they mean more broadly for Saudi Arabia going forward.

It’s been a busy week of reform for King Abdullah, Saudi Arabia’s octogenarian and progressive monarch. Over the past few days alone, he has granted Saudi women the right to vote and stand for office in municipal elections, and overturned a sentence of 10 lashes handed down to an activist who defied a female driving ban.

On the one hand, these changes are nothing short of historic by Saudi standards. Under the kingdom’s puritanical brand of Sunni Islam, women must be fully veiled, cannot travel without a male chaperone and face restrictions on everything from jobs to inheritances. This is only part of Saudi Arabia’s dismal human rights record, where foreign workers are treated like modern-day slaves while Shia Muslims and religious minorities remain second-class citizens.

But these concessions also do not go nearly far enough. King Abdullah, who pledged to “open all doors for Saudi women” over a decade ago, has struggled to even keep the few doors he has opened ajar due to fierce backlash from the conservative religious establishment. Even though his latest decree on political participation would only come into effect in 2015 — rather than in time for elections last week — he still faced stiff resistance from hardliners who tried to undermine his reformist push.

Yet the Saudi people’s patience for glacial reform could soon wear thin. For decades, the ruling royal family has held the reins of power through its vast oil reserves, strict Wahabbist Islam and nimble mix of co-option, coercion and change. Now, the Arab Spring abroad and a winter of discontent at home are coalescing into louder demands for change. Forty percent of Saudi youths are unemployed, while their cabinet ministers, who average 65 years of age, continue to line the pockets of patronage networks to prolong their rule. Saudi liberals, Islamists and disaffected youth, through a string of online petitions, have called for protests and a constitutional monarchy, inspired in part by similar uprisings by their Arab brethren.

Few expect a revolution in the kingdom soon. The House of Saud has a firm grip on its patronage networks and security services, and continues to co-opt key elements of the opposition. Predictably, the regime has also responded to the latest wave of domestic discontent and foreign instability with a counterrevolution of its own. To stem the tide of Arab uprisings, Saudi Arabia has, among other things, sent tanks to Bahrain, housed Yemen’s embattled president Ali Abdullah Saleh and poured financial assistance to Jordan, Morocco and friendly political movements in the region. And at home, the king unveiled welfare decrees earlier this year with $130 billion earmarked for things like job creation and unemployment assistance.

All this may just kick the proverbial can down the road. The kingdom’s strategy of throwing money at problems is proving more unsustainable and earning fewer returns. The oil price at which its budget breaks even — now just above $80 per barrel — is expected to soar to $110 by 2015. Attempts to increase public jobs will expand an already bloated bureaucracy where almost 50 percent of total government outlays are for salaries while also undermining private labor markets needed for long-term economic growth. And Saudis are displaying their dissatisfaction with the system by voting with their feet: last week’s election suffered from an incredibly low turnout. Abroad, the kingdom’s money and meddling have sometimes not produced desired outcomes, in part because of divisions within the aging royal family about what to do in places like Yemen.

It is still unreasonable to expect the Saudi regime to collapse like a house of cards under the weight of the revolutions sweeping the Arab world. But there are clearly cracks slowly emerging in the House of Saud; ones that money may not be able to fix for long.

Read the article at the Tufts Daily website here.

Asia Weekly (September 25 – October 1, 2011)

A weekly summary of key events in Asia and beyond

• In a historic move, Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah granted Saudi women the right to vote and stand for office in municipal elections in 2015. However, they were not allowed to vote in elections held last week, which saw very low turnouts. On Thursday, the king also overturned a sentence of 10 lashes handed down to an activist who defied a female driving ban, which was viewed by some as an effort to push back against hardliners.

• US born cleric and Al-Qaeda’s most well-known propagandist, Anwar al-Awlaki, was killed by an air strike on his convoy in Yemen by US counter-terrorism forces. US officials allege that Al-Awlaki inspired individuals who participated in several recent foiled terrorism plots in the United States. The killing comes as Yemen’s President Ali Abdullah Saleh recently returned to Yemen from neighboring Saudi Arabia.

• At a Senate Arms Services Committee hearing and again in an interview with the Wall Street Journal this week, now retired US Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Mike Mullen strongly criticized and accused the Pakistan’s intelligence agency, the ISI, of collaborating with the Haqqani network which Washington blames for a recent attack on the US embassy in Kabul. The Pakistani government rejected Mr. Mullen’s accusations. Read this article by The Asianist on how to conceptualize US-Pakistan relations.

• Sri Lanka released nearly 1,800 former rebels of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) after two years in captivity since the end of the country’s bloody civil war. Colombo has come under heavy pressure from human rights groups to either charge the detainees and free them, as well as to allow for an independent investigation into human rights violations by the government and rebels. The UN estimates that at least 7,000 people were killed in the last five months of fighting alone. For a broader take on reconciliation in Sri Lanka, see this piece by The Asianist.

• Germany’s parliament passed a much-needed measure to expand a Euro bailout fund for heavily indebted European countries, which Chancellor Angela Merkel has said is critical to ensure Europe’s economic stability. Yet analysts believe even if an expanded fund is approved by countries in the coming weeks, will not be enough to curb the continent’s deepening crisis. For a more big-picture take, see the article The Asianist comments on here.

• Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin announced last weekend that they would effectively swap places next year, paving the way for Mr. Putin’s return for a third term after presidential elections in March. Mr. Medvedev said Mr. Putin enjoys broad popularity and that they share the same goals. But critics say the planned swap undermines democracy.

• At least 59 people died and thousands were left stranded after Typhoons Nesat and Nalgae triggered heavy flooding in the northern Philippines.

• In a routine response, China scaled back military ties with the United States over Washington’s decision to upgrade Taiwan’s fleet of F-16 fighter jets. China views Taiwan as part of its territory and has opposed US arms sales to Taiwan. The United States is obligated under the Taiwan Relations Act to supply Taiwan with weapons for its self defense, which some view as more necessary than ever in light of Beijing’s military buildup. For The Asianist’s take on the subject, see here.

• In what could be a blow to human rights, South African officials may deny the Dalai Lama a visa to enter the country to celebrate the 80^th birthday of his friend and fellow Nobel Peace Laureate, Archbishop Desmond Tutu, due to pressure from China.

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